As of 1pm (ChST), a tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued meaning that development into a tropical cyclone (tropical depression) is likely within the next 24 hours.

Invest 95W remains a poorly organized tropical disturbance located about 305 miles southeast of Guam and 330 miles northwest of Weno, Chuuk.

Officials said development and intensification has been slow and sluggish.

“This is good news for folks in Guam and the CNMI,” said Landon Aydlett of the Guam National Weather Service. “A slow and steady intensification trend is still favored the next couple of days as 95W approaches, and passes by the Marianas.”

Meteorologists confirm 95W will not be another Typhoon Mawar.

95W will pass through the region near, or over, Guam as a tropical depression, sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night.

“Due to the form of this disturbance, even with a passage over Guam, the CNMI will likely see stronger winds with the passage of this system. This is because stronger winds are currently focused on the northern periphery,” he said. “If 95W passes by south of Guam, then Guam could see stronger winds…A multi-day rain event could also occur with the monsoon pattern, if it indeed sets up over the Marianas for the last half of this week.”

A Flood Watch is now in effect for Guam and the CNMI, and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for hazardous winds and seas developing on the coastal waters tonight.