A U.S.-China clash over Taiwan could spark the unthinkable: nuclear escalation. It’s why a report from the Rand Corporation, commissioned by the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command, urges careful escalation management while maintaining military readiness.

Titled "Denial without Disaster," the report offers specific recommendations like how the U.S. military, particularly its joint long-range strike capabilities, must balance operational effectiveness without provoking a nuclear response from China, which now has a secure second-strike capability.

And with Guam caught in the middle of that delicate dance, island residents are sounding off. 

“It concerns me a lot.” said Harry Preuc, Mangilao resident. “Especially if they’re gonna go nuclear, we have no place to run.” 

Guam is specifically named in one portion of the report that explores hypothetical  escalation pathways to Chinese nuclear first use. 

In one potential scenario, China sees a nuclear strike as the best way to disable Guam's Andersen Air Force Base, destroy aircraft, and halt operations for an extended period. 

“If China or the United States decides to press that button, what can we do,” asked Larry and Norma Ferjan, Yigo residents. 

The analysis highlighted how missteps or miscalculations on either side could lead to catastrophe, underpinning, yet again, the importance of escalation management. 

Legislative Committee Chair on Federal, Foreign, and Regional Affairs, Vice-Speaker Tina Muna Barnes, also weigned in on the report. 

“Guam is uniquely positioned, but also uniquely vulnerable–so investments not only to harden military infrastructure but to protect the civilian population through emergency preparedness is critical for our federal counterparts to push,” said Barnes. “This affects all island nations in Micronesia, I call one blue continent. So, this stresses that Guam needs a seat at a higher regional conference, like the Pacific Islands Forum–so that we can advocate for our people.”

The full report and the Vice Speaker’s comments in its entirety, can be found below.

Vice Speaker Tina Muna Barnes' full statement

It’s no surprise that as the ‘tip of the spear,’ our island will always be a target, pitted between two global powers.

Guam is uniquely positioned but also uniquely vulnerable, investments not only to harden military infrastructure, but to protect the civilian population through emergency preparedness is critical for our federal counterparts to push. We need to have a One Guam approach.

As chairperson on federal and regional affairs, my goal has always been to keep Guam at the table at organizations like APIL and MILA. This not only affects Guam it affects all island nations in Micronesia. (Our Blue Continent)This stresses the point that Guam needs a seat at higher regional conferences like the Pacific Island Forum so we can advocate for our people. We will continue to do our very best to ensure we get those seats.

Guam will always stand in the defense of our nation and democracy in this region, but we need to ensure the safety of our island. We need greater representation at all levels in the federal government and regional conferences to advocate for resources for our island and our people.

Full Report link: