Pacific Center for Island Security weighs-in on missing pieces in the defense of Guam

A Guam-based thinktank, the Pacific Center for Island Security, is highlighting  gaps in Guam's defense. The feedback comes on the heels of the military's ballistic missile intercept test. KUAM spoke with the director of  PCIS, as they have been closely monitoring the region's shifting geopolitical landscape.

Fresh off the military’s first-ever ballistic missile defense event for Guam Tuesday night, one question looms large: does the island become safer or a bigger target with systems like the proposed enhanced integrated air and missile defense system?

According to PCIS director Leland Bettis, it’s a complex issue that defies a simple answer. He pointed to recent pentagon-funded studies that may shed light on the debate, explaining, “It’s just not my opinion, but Pentagon studies funded in the last month suggested that in the event of a conflict, having a system like is being proposed could escalate the conflict.”

Rand corporation, in its report Denial Without Disaster, highlights the delicate balance of escalation management in a potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.

"The concern," Bettis continued, "is that in the event of a conflict in the region, say, over Taiwan—and specifically, these studies looked at Taiwan—if an adversary like China felt that they were expending too many conventional weapons to take Guam out of the fight, they would likely escalate to a nuclear strike.”

He also raised the alarm over critical gaps in discussions about Guam’s defense, including the absence of federal funding for civilian shelters or food resiliency in case of conflict.

“There’s really been no discussion about any sort of security for the people of Guam in conflict. This is very concerning because everyone else in the region—Japan, Korea, and Taiwan—has very elaborate civil defense structures and plans in the event of conflict. Just two months ago, the U.S. military worked with the government of Japan on evacuation plans off Okinawa in the event of conflict," he told KUAM News.

Taiwan news reports that Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Matsuno Hirokazu, spoke with local government leaders in October to develop evacuation plans for 120,000 people from Okinawa, with Taiwan conflict scenarios in mind.

It’s complex world events close to our shores that bettis encourages the community to pay attention to, as PCIS shares updates and insights as new information emerges.